Research Archive

On this page I have made available most of my published work on monetary policy and financial economics. I would recommend all readers to have a look at the Guide to my research on monetary and financial economics, which provides both context and comments to most of the articles listed below, as well as some personal notes on how this research has come about.

Much of my recent research output has been published in the Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, now published for Columbia Business School by Wiley. (See references below) Some earlier versions of this work may be found on the Blog- but copyright prevents me from posting the published versions.

Global Trade – Hostage to the Volatile US Dollar, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Volume 30, Number 1, Winter 2018

The Beliefs of Central Bankers about Inflation and the Business Cycle—and Some Reasons to Question the Faith, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance; Volume 28, Number 1, Winter 2016

A South African Success Story; Excellence in the  Corporate use of capital and its Social Benefits with David Holland, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Volume 26, Number 2, Spring 2014

2013 Nobel Prize Revisited: Do Shiller’s Models Really Have Predictive Power? with Christopher Holdsworth, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Volume 26 Number 2 Spring 2014

Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis (Or Why Capital Structure Is Too Important to Be Left to Regulation) with Christopher Holdsworth, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Volume 22, Number 3, Summer 2010

Applying Economics:

2008:
General Evaluating Performances at the 2007 Cricket World Cup South African Statistical Journal
A criterion for comparing and selecting batsmen in limited overs cricket South African Journal of Economics

2002:
Paying to play – the pricing policies of Casinos Journal of the Operational Research Society

Monetary and Financial Economics:

2015:

The Beliefs of Central Bankers about inflation and the business cycle – should we share the faith?		 Unpublished

2013:
Money Supply and Economic Activity in South Africa: The relationship updated to 2011 SEE

2011:
A study on inflation and inflation expectations

2010:
Eskom- now in good financial shape to serve the economy
Establishing the right price for electricity in South Africa
Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 2010, 22(3)

2009:
The global forces that drive SA’s Financial markets from day to day – an analysis with the implications drawn for monetary policy ESSA, Biennial Conference, Sept.2009

2006:
The effect of the rand exchange rate on the JSE Top-40 stocks – An analysis for the practitioner
Portfolio Strategies for hedging against Rand weakness

2004:
Trevor Manuel and the Markets in Manuel Markets and Money. Edited by Raymond Parsons, Double Storey Books, Cape Town, 2004.

2003:
The impact of the rand on the value of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange

2002:
The South African economy and its asset markets – An integrated approach
Making sense of Remgro’s discount to NAV – and sensing a trading opportunity Investec Securities, Investment Strategy

2001:
Adding value for shareholders in South Africa: An analysis of the Rembrandt restructuring
Tracking stocks – an alternative to unbundling for the South African group The Investment Analysts Journal, 2001 51(4)
Why the discount to NAV and what may be usefully done about it Investec Securities, Investment Strategy

1999:
The investment decision – Adding value for shareholders

1998:
Price earnings ratios on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange – Are they a guide to value? SAJAR, 1998 12(2)
Ownership and control in South Africa under black rule Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 1998 10(4)

1995:
Shareholders as agents and principals: The case for South Africa’s corporate governance system Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 1995 8(1)
Money Matters in Understanding Capitalism by Brian Kantor

1994:
The Discount to Net Asset Value, Unbundling and Shareholder Interests De Ratione, 1994 8(1)

1993:
The Money Income Causality Debate: A Comment SAJE 61:1

1992:
Savings and investment – ownership and control in South Africa South Africa International, October 1992

1990:
Inflation in South Africa – Definitions, Explanations and Evidence
Updated Figures (2011) for: Inflation in South Africa – Definitions, Explanations and Evidence
The Application of a Vector Autoregressive Model to money, income and price links in the South African economy S.E.E. 1990 12(1)

1989:
The causes of inflation – and what can be done
Money and economic activity: A response to the Reserve Bank: A reply
Estimating the value of unrecorded economic activity on South Africa Journal of Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 1989 13(1)

1988:
The pricing of electricity in South Africa: A critical assessment of the De Villiers Commission of Inquiry Managerial and Decision Economics, 1988 9(4)
Hutt’s Views on Money Managerial and Decision Economics, 1988 Special Issue

1987:
The weighted covariance biplot – an application South African Statistics Journal, 1987 (21)

 
Relative price changes and their effects on sectoral contributions to national income

1986:
Electricity pricing in Hong Kong: A comment Hong Kong Economc Papers, 1986 (17)
The De Kock Commission Report: A Monetarist Perspective SAJE 54:1

1983:
The decade of inflation – A perspective on recent monetary developments in South Africa
Interest rates, the exchange rate and money supply in South Africa ESSA conference 1983
A theory of the financial rand discount

1982:
Testing Rational Expectations: A comment The South African Journal of Economics, 1982 50(1)
Money and economic activity: Some alternative results The South African Journal of Economics, 1982 50(4)
South African monetary policy in South African Economic Issues

1980:
An analysis of black unemployment in South Africa

1979:
Rational expectations and economic thought Journal of Economic Literature, 1979 (XVII)
Is there a rationale for stabilization policy?
The origins of Keynesian mythology: Britain between the wars

1976:
The effects of inflation in South Africa Conference on Inflation at the University of Stellembosch
The money supply process in South Africa: Explanation, verification, implication.

1975:
Balance of Payments relations between Britain and some dependent economies 1870 – 1914
The Cape Bank Act of 1891

1974:
Cape Colonial Finance

1973:
A General Equilibrium analysis of monetary policy

1972:
The South African Financial Structure Supplement to the Standard Bank Review, Sept 1972

1971:
The Rixdollar and the foreign exchange
The Franzen Commission on monetary policy

1970:
The Gold Agreement and the future of gold

1968:
The money supply and the inflationary process The South African Journal of Economics