The SA Business Cycle: Hard numbers still pointing to lower levels of activity

Our Hard Number Index (HNI) can now be updated for May 2009 with the release of two hard numbers, vehicle sales and the notes issued by the Reserve Bank at May month end. As we show below there is no sign of any improving trend in the SA economy to be derived from the HNI. The Index attempts to replicate the pace of growth – higher numbers indicate that growth is picking up momentum that is accelerating while lower numbers indicate that growth is slowing down.

The HNI peaked in late 2006 at a value of over 165 indicating that the economy was then moving ahead at a very rapid rate. The latest reading for May 2009 is 106.06 and down from its 109.06 reading in April. This indicates that not only has the economy slowed down but that it is in now in reverse and probably going backward more rapidly than earlier in the year.

The HNI may be regarded as representing the first derivative of the economy. The second derivative, that is the rate of change of the rate of change in economic activity, is still pointing lower indicating little sign of a bottoming out in the pace of economic activity.

The Hard Number Index May 2009

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Source: Investec Securities

The SA Business Cycle – The second derivative

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Source: Investec Securities

New vehicle sales are still in decline

Vehicle sales in May provide very little cause for comfort that interest rate sensitive spending is responding to lower interest rates. The growth measured as the change in vehicles sold in May 2009 over May 2008 showed a further decline compared to April growth. More discouraging is that the underlying trend in vehicle sales is still pointing down rather than up. We calculate this trend by smoothing vehicle sales and then annualising the monthly growth in this smoothed measure.

Growth in New Vehicle Sales

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Source: NAAMSA, Investec Securities

Not all bad news – the money cycle is pointing up

It is fortunately not all bad news. There is some consolation to be derived from the latest trends in the cash, that is Reserve Bank money supplied to the SA economy. Adjusted for the inflation trend, we can now observe an improving trend as may be seen below. Annual growth has turned marginally positive and the underlying trend has improved suggesting that a sustainable recovery in the supply of cash is under way. The driver of this series is lower inflation rather than any pick up in the cash supply itself as we also show. The growth in the actual cash supply (not adjusted for inflation) has been trending marginally lower as may be seen.

The real money supply cycle

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Source: Investec Securities

The cash cycle

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Source: Investec Securities

Is the Bank undertaking quantitative easing?

In this regard it is to be noted that the gross foreign exchange reserves of the Reserve Bank increased by a large US$1.724bn in May 2009. This indicates that the bank was very active resisting rand strength last month, notwithstanding the recent remarks from the Governor about intervention in the currency market. Of greater interest is that these purchases to not appear to have been sterilised by treasury open market sales of government securities.

The government deposits at the Reserve Bank that would indicate such operations actually fell in May to R66.153bn from R66.402bn in April. This may indicate that the bank and the treasury agree with us that quantitative easing, that is supplying the banks with more cash via operations in the currency market, to encourage them to lend more freely, is a good idea, given the weak state of the economy. A recovery in the supply of money and bank credit is essential to the purpose of reviving the SA economy.

Long term interest rates in the US: What they tell us about growth and inflation

The big story last week

The big market news last week was about the extraordinary volatility of long term interest rates in the US. The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond began the week at 3.4% then reached 3.8% on the Wednesday only to fall back again to 3.4% by the week end. Their current yield is 3.55%. The similarly dated inflation protected bonds moved broadly in the same direction though as may be seen the compensation for inflation risk assumed by the investor in vanilla bonds increased by 10bps to 1.9% in mid week to then fall back again and also end the week largely unchanged.

US 10 year Treasury Bond Yields – Inflation linked (LHS) and Nominal (RHS)

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Source: Bloomberg and Investec Securities

Inflation compensation in the US government bond market – May 2009

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Source: Bloomberg and Investec Securities

What happened to nominal and real yields these past twelve turbulent months

In the figures below we show these trends over the past turbulent year. As may be seen the gap between ordinary bond and inflation linked bond yields in the US closed almost completely at year end. Thereafter the inflation protected (TIPS) yields fell away while that of the ordinary bonds rose from their lows of 2%. Thus inflation compensation of 2.5% pa provided by nominal bond yields shrunk to about zero at year end from which they have recovered to their current levels that are still below 2%.

Explaining real and nominal yields

Ordinarily these real bond yields reveal the real state of the global capital markets. When the global economy is expected to grow strongly the extra demands for real plant and equipment and the capital to finance growth in the real capital stock pushes up real benchmark yields (these are well represented in the global capital market by the yield on US TIPS). When the economy is expected to slow down, demand for capital falls away and real yields decline again. Thus these real yields ordinarily are a very good indicator of the expected state of the global economy.

The increase in real yields that occurred at the height of the credit crisis surely requires a different explanation. It suggests that only the safest haven, vanilla bonds, issued by the US government escaped the liquidity pressures of that time. It may be seen below that nominal Treasury bond yields fell away while initially the TIPS yields rose again. That these yields came together again by year end suggests that fears of deflation rather than inflation came to dominate market sentiment.

US T bond yields May 2008- May 2009

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Source: Bloomberg and Investec Securities

US bond market; inflation compensation 2008-2009

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Source: Bloomberg and Investec Securities

Interpreting the bond market in normal times

Thus we may summarise the evidence provided by bond markets in normal times. The real yields provided by the inflation protected securities (TIPS) tell us about the state of the economy. The higher these yields the more promising is the global economic outlook. Thus the modest increase in real yields recorded recently does help confirm an improvement from the depressed state of the global economy.

The yields on vanilla bonds have to offer compensation for the inflation expected by bond holders. Any increase in inflation detracts from the purchasing power of the interest income bond investors depend upon. Therefore they seek protection from such losses in the form of higher yields. The difference between the higher yields on ordinary bonds and the lower yields on inflation protected bonds issued by the US government tells us just how much inflation protection or compensation the holder of vanilla bonds is receiving.

Winners and losers from unexpected inflation and growth

If inflation expected over the long term tenure of the bonds rises unexpectedly the holders of ordinary bonds lose out while the holders of the inflation protected bonds will gain. Vice versa when long term inflation turns out to have been overestimated by bond investors, and ordinary bond yields decline with real yields on the TIPS unlikely to be much affected by the inflation outlook alone.

These real yields will be affected however if more or less inflation expected is combined with changing expectations of for real economic growth. If more inflation is expected to slow the economy down, that is fears of stagnation with inflation (stagflation) become pronounced, ordinary bond yields will go up and real bond yields will retreat.

The holders of vanilla bonds will lose as the search for protection against more inflation forces nominal bond yields higher and the prices of bonds lower. The holders of TIPS will at the same time benefit from downward pressure on real bond yields and upward pressure on the market value of the TIPS, as the stagnating economy is expected to reduce the demand for capital and so the returns to be expected from all classes of financial securities, including equities. Vice versa less inflation should be associated with faster growth as economic theory suggests.

Thus holders of vanilla bonds fear inflation eroding their incomes. Holders of inflation linked bonds are completely protected against the risks of more or less inflation. However the costs of this protection will depend on the ever changing outlook for real growth and inflation. A combination of faster economic growth with very low inflation will drive real yields higher and so the value of the long dated TIPS lower.

With large government deficits the outlook for inflation and growth remains unusually uncertain – expect volatility

The outlook for global inflation is particularly uncertain at present – hence the extreme volatility of long dated government bond yields. The US government is planning to spend far more than the tax revenues it expects to collect – at the rate equivalent to 12%-13% of GDP over the next two years. This means a great deal more government borrowing and the government debt to GDP ratio is expected to double from its current ratio of 40% of GDP over the next ten years. This means an ever increasing share of US government spending will have to go to paying interest rather than providing for much more popular other forms of government spending.

Getting back to comfort levels is going to take a long time

Getting this debt to GDP ratio back to more comfortable levels any time soon is very unlikely. It will take a combination of a smaller government relative to the economy and higher government revenues. Given the weak expected state of the economy, cutting government spending will seem a particularly unpopular direction to take. Current spending increases inevitably become permanent entitlements. Furthermore, given the weakness of the economy any higher tax revenue to be raised would have to come from higher tax rates rather than a more buoyant economy. And higher tax rates in turn threaten the growth outlook. Thus the pressures on the US government to print money to fund its spending rather than face up to tough choices will mount.

The Fed will be called upon to act with determination and excellent judgment

It is the task of the independent US central bank, the Fed, to very actively resist monetising the debt. There is every good reason to expect the Fed to resist with all the powers at its disposal. However the Fed has already been printing money on a vast scale, not to fund the government but to help the credit and money markets overcome their liquidity fears. Overcoming these fears and the preference of the banks to hoard rather than lend the cash made available to them is essential if the economy is to recover.

The Fed therefore has unusually difficult seas to navigate successfully over the next few years. It must be able to resist monetising government borrowing that will be growing rapidly and borrowing that in time will come to crowd out private borrowers and capital formation by the private sector – diminishing growth prospects. It must also be able to withdraw cash form circulation as the propensity of households and firms to spend more gains momentum. Getting the timing right here so as not to nip any incipient recovery in the bud, while remaining steadfast in the face of higher levels of government spending and higher long term nominal interest rates, will not be easy for the Fed.

Expect volatility in government bond markets and for inflation linkers to be attractive

For all these reasons US and global inflation expected over the next ten years will prove very difficult to forecast with any degree of accuracy. Accordingly nominal government bond yields are likely to remain volatile, while the outlook for real growth remains subject to above normal degrees of uncertainty. If so inflation linkers issued by governments provide an unusual degree of comfort for potentially troubled and inflationary times.

Encouraging declines in risk aversion

It was not a good week for global equity investors with the Emerging Market Index down 2.4%, the S&P 500 down 5% and the small US cap Russell 2000 off nearly 7% by the weekend. The SA component of the MSCI EM Index fared relatively well and was 1.5% weaker in US dollars. The rand investor on the JSE suffered only marginal weakness with Industrials up 2% and Resources off a little more than 2%. The rand ended the week nearly 5% weaker vs the USD and on a trade weighted basis.

Continue reading Encouraging declines in risk aversion

No room for complacency about the state of the SA economy – aggressive policy action is called for

Grim news from the shop keepers

Retail sales statistics were updated yesterday 13 May. The state of the retail sector in March 2009 provides no comfort at all about the state of the SA economy. The statistics indicate that sales adjusted for inflation are still falling at an accelerating rate. Interpreting retail activity is always complicated by the Easter holidays that may come in March or April, as they did this year. We will need to wait for the April numbers to fully adjust for Easter.

Continue reading No room for complacency about the state of the SA economy – aggressive policy action is called for

How Keynesian are we?

Back from Davos

Maria Ramos, once Director General of the Finance Department, then CEO of Transnet and now of Absa and also incidentally newly married to long serving Minister of Finance Trevor Manuel, returned from Davos to tell us “We are all Keynesians now”

This is what Time magazine thought prematurely in 1965

This was in fact the heading of an iconic Time Magazine story written on 31 December 1965. Economists were then very confident that by fine tuning government spending and taxes, the Keynesian prescription, they could maintain full employment without inflation. Ramos might have been surprised that Time magazine in its “We are all Keynesians now” title was quoting none other than Milton Friedman. It was he more than any other economist who helped suppress the Keynesian revolution in economics.

Continue reading How Keynesian are we?