Encouraging declines in risk aversion

It was not a good week for global equity investors with the Emerging Market Index down 2.4%, the S&P 500 down 5% and the small US cap Russell 2000 off nearly 7% by the weekend. The SA component of the MSCI EM Index fared relatively well and was 1.5% weaker in US dollars. The rand investor on the JSE suffered only marginal weakness with Industrials up 2% and Resources off a little more than 2%. The rand ended the week nearly 5% weaker vs the USD and on a trade weighted basis.

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No room for complacency about the state of the SA economy – aggressive policy action is called for

Grim news from the shop keepers

Retail sales statistics were updated yesterday 13 May. The state of the retail sector in March 2009 provides no comfort at all about the state of the SA economy. The statistics indicate that sales adjusted for inflation are still falling at an accelerating rate. Interpreting retail activity is always complicated by the Easter holidays that may come in March or April, as they did this year. We will need to wait for the April numbers to fully adjust for Easter.

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How Keynesian are we?

Back from Davos

Maria Ramos, once Director General of the Finance Department, then CEO of Transnet and now of Absa and also incidentally newly married to long serving Minister of Finance Trevor Manuel, returned from Davos to tell us “We are all Keynesians now”

This is what Time magazine thought prematurely in 1965

This was in fact the heading of an iconic Time Magazine story written on 31 December 1965. Economists were then very confident that by fine tuning government spending and taxes, the Keynesian prescription, they could maintain full employment without inflation. Ramos might have been surprised that Time magazine in its “We are all Keynesians now” title was quoting none other than Milton Friedman. It was he more than any other economist who helped suppress the Keynesian revolution in economics.

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