Past performance would be very welcome. Precious metals lead and good things follow

Brian Kantor

January 13^th 2026

These are exciting times for investors in South African assets. They are exciting for the usual reasons. Precious metal prices and the value of the producing mines have been on a tear. And precious metals are still very important for SA incomes, exports, the foreign exchange value of the rand, inflation and interest rates.

We have been here before – notably in the period between 2002 and 2007 when precious metal prices boomed, the rand strengthened and inflation and interest rates came down. And economic (GDP) growth accelerated in response. An episode that was disrupted by the global financial crisis. Though for a long period after 2012 precious metal prices in USD were in decline.

A reprise is very possible as interest rates recede further in response to lower inflation rates. And in response to a genuinely strong rand that the Reserve Bank may well conclude that is too strong for our good. And decide that the attractions of investing in rands should be discouraged to a degree with a lower carry in favour of the ZAR. And additionally buy dollars that would add to the cash reserves and the lending capacity of the banking system.

Note below the similarity in metal price trends in USD between 2002 and 2007 and lately. An equal mixture of the gold and platinum prices tells the story – which will be confirmed when the GDP and Balance of Payments statistics are updated later this month. Yet an updated mixture of platinum and gold tells the macro-story in an immediate way. The growth rates in this mixed basket mix are very similar to the growth in mining revenues generally as we show below.

The big metal price picture in USD and ZAR (2000-2026 Daily Data)